Thoughts Out Of Season

Today's morbidity and mortality number reflect an ever growing spread of corona virus or covid-19. Cases have popped up all over the world: South Korea 204 Japan 87 Singapore 85 Thailand 35 Malaysia 15 Italy 14 Iran in 1 day 6 cases and 2 deaths Many of these cases present without any travel to China and no known contacts. But what is most concerning to me is not the infection rate or the death rate. It is the amount of people who become critically ill and require ICU care. There are approximately 94,000  ICU beds across the country with the most skilled doctors, Physician Assistants and Nurses on hand. That surely is a lot of beds until you think how man of those beds are occupied on a daily bases diseases such as heart failure, stoke, diabetic complications, pneumonia, etc... In my experience at least 8 out of 10 beds are occupied. What in God's name are we going to do when overloaded with thousands, possibly tens of thousands of critically ill. And you...

Forget the information coming from Chinese authorities. They are still trying to save face while their citizens die in droves. But where do we look for information? Take a look at the cruise ship Diamond Princess. It's the perfect clinical trial. 3700 people isolated on that ship, no medical personnel, no involvement by Chinese authorities fudging the numbers. A trial such as this could never be replicated due to ethical concerns. What you have is a ship where all persons were quarantined in their cabins, no contact with anyone outside their cabins after the first person confirmed to have the virus. Results: Of 3700 people so far test on that ship at least 635 have come back positive which gives an infection rate of 18%. So far not all the passengers have not been tested so that number could rise. Extrapolated to the  population of the United States give  you would get if the infection rate was 20% was 60 +million people infected. Guess I can understand why 760 mil...

Every day China releases data in the number of those infected , the numbers critical and dead secondary to the corona virus. These numbers are taken at face value by WHO, CDC and tens of thousands of news organizations worldwide. But what if I told you I could do a statistical analysis of the numbers released by China and predict with incredible accuracy what tomorrows numbers would be? A regession analysis by Barron's found an incredible and very unnatural 99.99% prediction value for the information coming out of Chin. To better explain this I will quote Barron's: Put in an investing context, that variance, or so-called r-squared value, would mean that an investor could predict tomorrow’s stock price with almost perfect accuracy. In this case, the high r-squared means there is essentially zero unexpected variability in reported cases day after dayI                               Is the Chinese go...

In announcing the corona virus numbers for the day it has been observed, surprisingly that the official number of confirmed infections have dropped for the third day in a row , surprising both common man and expert alike. No reasons are given for this sudden reversal in cases which has taken most by surprise. Could it be the virus is petering out? Could be that a mountain of experts were wrong and that it wasn't as infectious as trumpeted? Maybe it was a worldwide conspiracy to discredit China by the evil, imperial United States? Or maybe something as simple as this?: China has placed 760 million people under quarantine. Much of the population has been quarantined with their doors blocked from opening by apparatus placed by Chinese authorities and their exit door welded shut thus cutting them off from the outside world.So you cut out untold millions of people from being tested and then trumpet the fact that numbers of confirmed cases are declining. So  sad that in the midst o...

New York City, along with 4 other cities will begin testing for corona virus, along with influenza A and B to patients seeking medical attention with flu like symptoms. Apparently there's been a big jump in flu cases, with influenza B being the main culprit. Concerning is the fact that many of these tests are coming back non-A, non-B.  Could it be that covid-2019 is already here but running under the radar? Possibly. We'll just have to wait and see. Wash hands frequently, wipe down surfaces with Lysol or other disinfectants, cough/sneeze into your elbow or shoulder and try as best as you can to keep from touching your face.

President Donald Trump's targeted assassination of Iran military commander Qassim Soleimani will have an immediate effect on gas prices due to a narrow but very important body of water. The Strait  of Hormuz is the only passage from the Persian Gulf to the open sea and moves 20% of the world's crude oil along with a third of its liquid natural gas. This important body of water is bordered to its South by the United Arab Emirates and, menacingly, Iran to its North. Iran considers The Strait of Hormuz as one the country's most important strategic points with one former prime minister calling it " Iran's Jugular vein". Iran acts as a potent presence in the region,at times stopping and seizing ships under a variety of pretexts to make its importance known and to flex it's muscles ( the seizure of two British ships in 2019 are just an example)  There are concerns that Iran, if it wished, could close the Hormuz Strait leading to chaos to the world's fi...